The Democratic Presidential primary, as of the 2 March, has just five candidates remaining. These are Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, and Tulsi Gabbard. Only the first three have any realistic shot of winning the nomination. Just a few days ago, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Steyer were also on this list.
But polls have shown candidates such as Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Steyer trailing for many weeks in the primary. Why drop out now? The largest reason is a fear of Bernie Sanders. Not only is Bernie the national frontrunner in the primary — albeit with only a plurality of voters — he is also one of only two progressive Democratic candidates running.
After the South Carolina primary, these holdouts (Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Steyer) gave up. The South Carolina primary is important nationwide in demonstrating which candidates are the most electable. Due to South Carolina’s large black population, this is especially true for support from African-American voters, who strongly lean Democratic. The fact that it is the last primary before Super Tuesday also means that any candidate that does well in it can build up momentum going into the next primaries. The clear winner from South Carolina was Joe Biden. He secured 61% of the black vote there and 48% of the vote overall, the closest any candidate has been to getting a majority of the vote in any state so far. This is even more significant because South Carolina is a primary, not a caucus. In caucuses, voters are able to change their vote to a different candidate if their first one gets below 15% support. In primaries, people just vote for 1 candidate. Without this voter realignment, it means that more votes for Biden were for him as a first choice, and not as a fallback option when the voter’s preferred candidate failed to get enough support. Bernie Sanders had the next highest level of support, with 17% of the black vote and 20% of the vote overall. Because of the way that the delegate system works in the Democratic primaries, these were the only two candidates who gained delegates from South Carolina.
The fact that Bernie’s only progressive competition is Elizabeth Warren means that, unlike Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden and Bloomberg, he is not forced to fight as much over the same voters. Polls from RealClearPolling (RCP) on the 2nd March show Bernie at a 28.5% average nationwide. Even when combined with Warren’s 14% average, progressives lack majority support in the party. Many Democrats think that by choosing a progressive, they risk alienating a majority of the party which they need for proper support.
Also, because the Democratic delegate system only grants delegates if a candidate gets 15% support or above, seemingly small endorsements could ensure Biden gets to the cut off in delegate-rich states such as California, where his support ranges, according to RCP, from 14 to 21 percent. To make sure that Biden gets the delegates he needs in California, other moderates have had to step aside so as to not take these crucial votes. This is also the situation in other states, such as Massachusetts and Colorado.
For many Democratic voters, the primary concern is getting Trump out of office, and any Democrat is preferable for them. Bernie has had some popularity issues, especially in terms of support from older voters, which turns out to vote more often than younger ones do. This means that Biden (due to his broader appeal) seems a better choice for getting rid of Trump to many Democrats who are otherwise unsure about who to support.
All of this means that, if the moderates in the Democratic party were to combine forces, they would be able to ensure Bernie does not win, and the nomination would be safely delivered to Biden. This process has already started, with Klobuchar and Pete both endorsing Biden before Super Tuesday. The question remains whether Biden can retain the momentum that he has built up from South Carolina and from his endorsements, and there is a good chance that he will.
Biden has the support of the Democratic establishment, which means that many members of Congress can, and already have, endorsed him in their states. This type of support can clearly be very impactful — 25% of voters said South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn’s endorsement of Biden was significant in their voting choice during the primary. Bloomberg, who has expressed massive discontent with Bernie Sanders and has billions to spend in advertising money, will also be able to throw his weight — and money- behind Biden when the time comes. If the Democratic establishment manages to do this all successfully, Bernie will definitely face an uphill battle.
